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The Pandora Box of the property market has been opening
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The Pandora Box of the property market has been opening

 

Damon Ho

2024年4月20日

Since the withdrawal of the cooling measures, the first-hand and second-hand property transaction volume surged immediately, but the transaction prices did not rise in parallel. One month later, the first-hand property transaction volume has been decreasing. Among of which the second batches of “Blue Coast” opened for sale, but the sales records were unsatisfactory in the first date of opening sale. The unwelcome sales results indicated that the spillover effects of the removal of cooling measures ended formally.

When Cheung Kong's “Blue Coast” completed its initial phase of second batches sales. KWG group and Logan Properties' super luxury properties “THE CORNICHE” in Li Nan Road of Ah Lai Chau, are now starting to be opened for sale in a low-key manner, and the price per square foot has been significantly reduced by 40% from last year's average price of HK$ 45,000 to 25,000, which are far beyond all the market predictions. 

In addition, Phase IIB of “Onmantin”, a property project at Ho Man Tin Station jointly developed by Great Eagle and MTR, announced the first price list yesterday, involving 115 units, with a discounted average price of HK$19,988 per square foot, which is 20% to 25% lower than that of “IN ONE”, which is adjacent to this development developed by Chinachem and MTR. This sales price was a new eight-year low in the same district.

In early May, Cheung Kong may launch the sale of its new properties in Kai Tak. Cheung Kong owns two sites in this district, and its average accommodation value of per square foot is only about HK$11,000. If Cheung Kong reduces the opening price to HK$17,000, the property market in the same district will become a stalemate. If it is anticipated, the new or semi-new projects in the area will be forced to lower its selling prices by more than 30%.

At present, there are a numeral of real estate companies in Hong Kong that are heavily indebted, and four of them have debt ratios ranging from sixty per cent to two hundred and thirty percent, so there is a chance that its creditors may then apply to the court for a winding-up order to any one of these companies. That is no doubt that some of these local real estate firms will be in bankruptcy. In this period, many companies will attempt to sell their new flats at lower prices to avoid being insolvent. Under the latest development of the property market, the more they sell, the lower price it will be. Finally, the persistent falling property prices will become the new normal of the property market. 

The Pandora Box of the property market has been opening
1. Hong Kong is expected to grow by 2.8%
2024-04-20 15:29

Hong Kong is expected to grow by 2.8% as tourism and domestic spending recover however this is still lower than the 3.2% recorded in 2023.

In the latest Hong Kong Economic Monitor, Hang Seng Bank Chief Economist Thomas Shik said that despite the recovering tourism and domestic demand boosting the economy, high policy rates continue to be a challenge.

2. US investors shift preferences to residential
2024-04-21 19:02

Amid the downturn in the US office market, investors are shifting preferences towards residential properties and logistics, while some see the opportunity for a rebound.

Around 90 percent of institutional investors plan to transform their office space into residential properties within the next five years, as a survey conducted by US-based institution The Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate showed last October.

Speaking at a panel in Cannes earlier on March 13, executives from the real estate industry said some parts of commercial real estate were holding up well, and clients were interested in investing in logistics and data centers rather than offices.

Prices of American offices and other commercial properties have plunged sharply despite its traditional appeal for stability, long-term growth potential, and steady rental income.

3. HKERS leverage debt for aproperty-related spending
2024-04-25 11:53

Hongkongers continue to leverage debt for lifestyle and property-related spending despite high-interest rates, Lendela reported.

From 2022 to 2024, Lendela reported that Hongkongers primarily borrowed for lifestyle-related expenses like vacations, hobbies, and cars, followed by credit card-related expenses and home-related costs, including renovations and property purchases.

Paying bills and consolidating debt were also reasons for incurring debt amongst Hongkongers.

In 2024, borrowers sought larger loans to consolidate debts, averaging $230,000 to $1m, with one in five applying, marking a 12% YTD increase.

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